Roaring into 2010

Merry Christmas Eve from cold and snowy Colorado. My gift to readers this year: short term optimism.

Optimism, you say, from me? Not possible! Yes, it’s true. I’m optimistic about short term stock market returns.

How accurate is this short term prediction? Perhaps as good as flipping a penny, and worth about as much.

The reasons for my optimism?

1) The tsunami of government stimulus from all corners of the globe.

2) Extremely positive year over year comparisons with dreadful numbers from last year at this time.

3) Mutual fund investors are buying bond funds as if the sky is going to fall, and retail investors are almost never right

4) Most of the smartest investors I know are skeptical about the recovery, and almost always wrong in the short term.

Over the next 6 years, I expect 0-10% returns from the stock market. But, in the short run, I’m guessing we’ll see much better than that.

Short term positive (next several months), intermediate term negative (6 months to 5 years), long term positive (5 years plus).

Have a very Merry Christmas!

Nothing in this blog should be considered investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are subject to change without notice. Information throughout this blog has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, but such accuracy cannot be guaranteed.