Unsurprising drop

The stock market was down 2.5% on its first trading day of June. This follows a decline of 6.8% in May, leaving stocks down 10.2% since its high of April this year, and down 18.9% since the high of October 2007. This seems to have surprised, and even shocked, many investors.

When asked what the stock market would do, J.P. Morgan famously said, “It will fluctuate.” Benjamin Graham told investors (in his book The Intelligent Investor) to resign themselves in advance “to the probability rather than the mere possibility that most of his holdings will advance, say, 50% or more from their low point and decline the equivalent of one-third or more from their high point at various periods.”

In other words, the stock market is a roller coaster, and investors should anticipate and even expect frequent stomach-churning drops and thrilling climbs along the way. These drops are not a sign of something unusual and dreaded, but something expected and even eagerly anticipated. Why? Because drops lead to opportunity as merchandise that cost $100 a few days ago is now on sale for less (sometimes, much less).

As I pointed out in my posts, Better than zero and “Where’s the market going next year?”, the math underlying expected future returns should have warned investors to anticipate drops. And, as I expressed in my post, All eyes on China, news of slowing growth from China would likely lead markets lower, and it has.

I think investors were surprised because they don’t think of the stock market as a roller coaster, or they try too hard to relish the climbs and forget the inevitable drops. Perhaps they also suffer from myopia, attending to recent company reports and economic news instead of thinking about longer term data. 

Nevertheless, drops will happen, and they should be exploited instead of feared. Lower prices mean higher future returns–clearly a good thing. Panicky investors that sell as the market drops benefit longer term investors that buy from them. I’m not saying the drops won’t pull at your stomach–they will. What I’m saying is drops are to be expected and wise investors will have the courage to act as the market drops to exploit short-term oriented investors.

I’m not panicking as my portfolio drops, but lining up my buy list and making purchases as the market sinks. The more it sinks, the more I’ll buy. Just like riding a roller coaster, I look forward to the plunges and climbs, because that’s the nature of the beast.

Nothing in this blog should be considered investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are subject to change without notice. Information throughout this blog has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, but such accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

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Unsurprising drop