Optimism = poor returns

It’s easiest to invest when you feel good about a company or the economy. That feeling reflects good recent results, and a herd of other people who share your good impression. Good feelings cause people to push prices far above underlying value. When the future turns out to be not as rosy as people’s inflated expectations, prices move back to value and poor returns result.

Exhibit A is 1999, when almost everyone was so optimistic about technology stocks, right before they dropped 76%.

Exhibit B is 2006, when almost everyone was in love with the real estate market, right before it plunged over 30%.

It’s hardest to invest when you feel terrible about a company or the economy. That bad feeling is due to poor recent results, and a herd of other people who agree that prospects are lousy. Bad feelings cause people to sell or not buy, pushing prices far below underlying value. When the future turns out to be not as bleak as most expect, prices move back up to value and better than average returns ensue.

Exhibit C is 2003, after the stock market dropped 48% and the second Gulf War started, right as the market started to climb 95% over the next 4 1/2 years.

Exhibit D is 2009, after the stock market dropped 56% and there were rumors the government was going to nationalize the banks, right as the market started to climb 106% over the following 3 years.

My point: optimism leads to poor returns, and pessimism precedes great returns.

The above is easier to grasp than it is to follow. Most people know they should buy low and sell high, but they mistakenly believe that they should wait “until the coast is clear” to invest, and run for cover “when the future looks scary.” They know what they should do, but they succumb to optimism or pessimism and don’t act.

Warren Buffett is the most successful investor alive because he is “greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.” Follow his lead:

  • If the coast is clear and it looks like everything is coming up roses, that’s not the time to double down–expect poor future returns
  • If some people are optimistic and others pessimistic, then you can expect average returns
  • If people are panicking and running for cover, that’s the time to double down–expect high future returns

In other words, don’t expect great results if everything looks safe, and don’t expect poor results just because everything looks gloomy. 

Nothing in this blog should be considered investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are subject to change without notice. Information throughout this blog has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, but such accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

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Optimism = poor returns