What will happen if the credit market’s other shoe drops?
Recent bond and stock market turmoil has turned full attention to credit markets. What has surprised me is that conditions for credit markets aren’t that bad. Am I mad, you may be thinking?
Here’s my line of reasoning. There are three things that can really beat up the consumer credit market: availability of credit, interest rates and employment.
The fireworks seen so far are almost purely due to the availability of credit. Market participants have been scared by recent credit defaults and delinquencies, and so they are refusing to grant such markets more credit.
But, interest rates and employment are just as important, and they are doing great right now. Both look as good as they have since the 1950’s and 1960’s, with long term interest rates at 4-5% and unemployment down around 4-5%.
What would happen if this were to change, and why doesn’t anybody seem to be discussing this?
I guaranty that if interest rates increase and employment starts to fall, you will see many more defaults and delinquencies. In other words, what we are witnessing in credit markets could just be the tip of the iceberg.
With Congress threatening 27.5% tariffs on Chinese goods and China threatening to sell the huge amount of US Government Treasury bonds they hold in response, the threat of higher interest rates is real. With credit market troubles in the US forcing the Fed to intervene and the dollar falling, higher interest rates are even more of a threat.
With the housing market supplying so many jobs since the 2001 recession and the housing market crashing, employment problems could just be surfacing. With recent retail sales so poor, additional employment problems could be rearing their ugly head, too.
I don’t know how this will play out, but I’m watching it carefully. If the economy continues to be strong, then interest rates and employment will not be big concerns.
But, if the economy continues to slow, the dollar continues to fall, retails sales continue to look punk, the housing market continues to decline, or protectionist sentiment in Congress gains momentum, look out below!
Nothing in this blog should be considered investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are subject to change without notice. Information throughout this blog has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, but such accuracy cannot be guaranteed.